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With the dramatic growth in renewable energy and the electrification of heating, the energy system is becoming highly weather-dependent. With this weather dependence comes new challenges - chief among these is the variability of solar and wind generation.
Grid operators require accurate solar power forecasts to enable them to balance electricity supply and demand, and reduce fossil fuel energy usage while minimising the operational risks from variable renewables - in particular black-outs. Solar farms and smart home operators all require accurate forecasts to run their businesses efficiently and reduce costs.
Cloud cover has a huge influence on solar generation, but traditional weather services struggle to forecast short term cloud dynamics.
Open Climate Fix already uses historical satellite imagery to forecast solar energy generation, and it had a huge positive impact on the accuracy of our forecast.
So, what if we could use the future satellite imagery?
At Open Climate Fix we have developed an open-source AI model for forecasting cloud movement using satellite imagery, and integrated this into our solar power forecast.
Our AI cloud forecast has significantly improved the accuracy of our solar generation forecast, giving a 5% improvement in accuracy in the UK, on top of our already leading forecast. Our cloud forecast out-performs both the European and UK Met Office weather services’ forecasts when measuring the impact on short-term solar generation forecasting - meaning almost double the performance gain.
Open Climate Fix is now unique in the energy industry in explicitly forecasting cloud movements.
Soon! We will be integrating Cloudcasting into our existing live solar forecasting service for the UK in the Summer of 2025.
We are excited that this innovation lays the foundation for future cloud and solar forecasting improvements, allowing more renewables to be connected to the grid and accelerating the path to net zero. Over the next year, we’ll be expanding this to a global cloud forecast to ensure maximum impact.
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Have questions about the forecast or how it could be useful for you? Get in contact with the team.
Open Climate Fix entered this Cloud Forecasting project as our entry into the 2024 competition, in partnership with The Alan Turing Institute, and we are delighted that our entry was selected as a finalist for the prestigious Manchester Prize - a competition to develop the most innovative AI solutions in the UK. You can read more about the project, the prize – and the other finalists – on the Manchester Prize website.
